Climate change influences in the spreading and controlling of common ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe

Abstract

The present spreading and the future spatial activity of the ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia has been evaluated upon statistical assessments of recent European surveys. The study focuses basically on climatic influences rather than herbological assessments. 

Evaluations have been done upon the available databases. Abundance of Ambrosia artemisiifolia across Europe was studied using the database derived from 10 km grid spatial pixels.  Climatic constrains were evaluated by each country in Europe based on estimations regarding the calibrated climatic quality surface for ragweed and the climatic variables most strongly limiting quality (temperature – low – high, moisture and seasonality). Extinction possibilities for future abundance of ragweed have been evaluated by the modelling data of the European survey presenting annual probability of extinction and the phenology – model prediction of ability to set seeds. The results of the study suggest that the spreading of the weed species may have an Eastward direction in the future. The possibilities for controlling the weed coverage are limited, in some countries and so in Hungary there is less chance to eliminate or reduce its presence in the future.