Slovene livestock production under transition in view of future accession to EU

Absztrakt

Objective of the paper is to estimate the economic effects of possible pre-accession agricultural policy scenarios for Slovene agriculture with special emphasis on livestock production. Agricultural Policy Analysis Simulator (APAS) and Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology has been applied to estimate likely market (supply and demand changes), trade flow (self-sufficiency and international trade) and income trends as well as competitiveness and welfare effects of five policy scenarios for period 1997 (base year) till 2003. CEFTA Agreement proved to be poor solution for Slovene agriculture, reducing agricultural output by 16% and income to one third in comparison with baseline. Proposed reform of national agricultural policy would bring producers ’ losses back, however, situation in comparison with baseline scenario (continuation of current policy) will be quite different, discouraging still beef, poultry and wheat sector, and lowering production in all livestock sectors. Complete adoption of reformed EU CAP according to Agenda 2000 would improve general picture of Slovene agriculture, among livestock foremost cattle production. Beef producers woidd benefit the most, followed by dairy farmers. EU policy with almost complete liberalised pork and poultry market proved as bad prospect for intensive industrialised farming, far from being competitive on open market.