Germany and Migration

Abstract

The Global Trends study, published every four to five years by the National Intelligence Council, and the Global Risks Report, which is published before the annual meetings of the World Economic Forum in Davos, provide forecasts for 5 to 10 years. Based on the signs visible in the world, they make forecasts about the expected ecological, demographic and political movements. These forecasts, while not able to see everything in advance, are more or less able to provide a rough estimate. According to the forecast published in 2008 up to 2025, rapid changes in the international order are expected in addition to growing geopolitical challenges. This turned out to be very true in the case of Germany. The demographic decline has made Germany's situation more difficult since the 1970s. The import of Turkish guest workers initially seemed to be a solution. Even then they became familiar with the problem of integrating Muslims. Angela Merkel reacted encouragingly to the wave of immigration to Europe in 2015 and announced a "welcoming culture". Then Germany declared that it was an immigration country. However, now it appears that numerous factors were not taken into account in the calculations.