Impact of climate change warming on the performance of medium-sized solar power plants
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18531/sme.vol.12.no.1.pp.89-106Keywords:
solar PV, warming, efficiency, climate change, RCP scenarioAbstract
The study focuses on the modelling of medium-sized solar PV systems in three central European cities - Miskolc, Sopron and Veszprém - and the impact of climate change on electricity generation. The analysis is based on the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Meteonorm weather database was used to generate input time series for the analyses, while the simulations were performed by the SAM program. The results show that climate change impacts can cause significant variations in the performance of solar PV systems. Increasing temperatures negatively affect the efficiency of the systems, while changes in global radiation are positively correlated with performance. The maximum temperature increase expected under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 may reduce the efficiency of power generation, while scenario RCP2.6 shows more stable results. The results of the analysis can provide useful guidance for the design and installation of future solar PV projects, especially to adapt to changing climate conditions. Such studies will contribute to a more efficient use of renewable energy sources to support the energy transition, while also contributing to Hungary's sustainability goals.
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