On the use of population rekonstruction in mouflon: opportunities and weaknesses

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the reliability of the reported mouflon population size in the spring, using data available for Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and Heves county and national recordings. We analyzed the period between 1994-2019 by applying population-reconstruction using trophy scoring data. After that, we compared the results of our population-reconstructions with the reported mouflon population sizes. The population-reconstruction method allows us to collect information about our researched population (sex ratio, age composition) years after the data collection. The most significant benefit of this method is that we use the number of age classes of scored trophies, which means that there is no need to rely on the data reported by wildlife managers exclusively. During the reconstruction of our population, we used the corresponding data throughout multiple years of calculations, which will result in less fluctuation regarding the outcome. This also results in a high expected correlation between the number of hunted individuals and the reconstructed population's size. After revealing some typical changes in the data/calculations, we divided the whole sets into two parts (1994-2002, 2003-2011). This decision relied on the fact that every single one of the studied territorial units deviated from the expectations in 2002. In summary, we can say that Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county and the national reports reveal similar values. Meanwhile, Heves county’s differs from the previous territories meaning that the number of hunted male individuals and scored trophies were too different. It is a clear indication that the data set did not include all trophies.